Pi Network currently has a global user base of over 45 million, but its price in the Indian market still highly depends on the launch progress of the mainnet. Historical data shows that the average price volatility of similar cryptocurrency projects can reach 80% after the mainnet goes live. For instance, after the mainnet of Polkadot was launched in 2021, the price of its token DOT rose by 120% in a single week on the Indian exchange. However, the KYC verification pass rate of Pi Network is only about 35%, which may lead to the actual circulation volume in the Indian region being less than 15% of the total issuance volume of 10 billion. According to a 2024 report by blockchain analytics firm Chainalysis, the average holding period for emerging projects by Indian cryptocurrency investors is nine months, while the Pi Network testnet phase has lasted for more than 48 months. This delay may reduce investors’ expected rate of return by approximately 40%.
The regulatory environment in India will significantly influence the price trend. In 2023, the Indian Ministry of Finance’s policy of imposing a 30% capital gains tax on virtual digital assets led to a 70% decline in Bitcoin trading volume at that time. If Pi Network obtains the Indian cryptocurrency compliance certification by 2025 (the current pass rate is only 20%), its liquidity may increase threefold. Referring to the accelerated internationalization process of the Indian rupee in 2022, for every 1% increase in foreign exchange volatility, the premium of cryptocurrencies will rise by 0.8%. Data from the Reserve Bank of India shows that the digital rupee pilot program will cover one million users in 2024. The competition from this legal digital currency may divert about 15% of Pi Network’s transaction demand.
The extent to which technical milestones are achieved is a key variable. The Pi Network white paper claims that the mainnet will achieve a processing capacity of 100,000 transactions per second, but the current testnet TPS is only 5,000. If the expected performance is achieved in 2025, referring to the case of Cardano’s price soaring by 300% after the upgrade in 2021, a similar increase may occur in the Indian market. However, cyber security risks cannot be ignored – The theft of 600 million US dollars from Poly Network in 2023 indicates that the probability of being attacked in the first year of a new mainnet’s launch is as high as 25%. According to statistics from the Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In), blockchain-related vulnerabilities caused losses amounting to 12 million US dollars in the first quarter of 2024.
Market sentiment and adoption rate will determine the price peak. India has 8 million active cryptocurrency traders, 75% of whom are aged between 18 and 35. This group has a strong willingness to invest in emerging projects. Social surveys show that the average monthly participation time of Indian users in Pi Network mining is 16 hours, but only 12% of users understand its consensus mechanism. If the acceptance rate of Indian merchants reaches 50% of the current Bitcoin level (about 20,000 merchants) in 2025, based on the network effect model estimation, pi network price in india 2025 May show a trend of rising first and then falling, with the expected price range being between 0.5 and 5 US dollars. The maximum increase from the current testnet trading price of $0.15 could reach 2,300%, but it may then fall back to around the median of $1.2. It should be noted that the Indian market accounts for only 6% of global cryptocurrency trading volume. Global events such as policy changes by the US SEC may cause price deviations of more than 50%.